This policy paper assesses the potential integration of larger amounts of solar PV into Ukraine’s electricity system by 2027 and 2030, using a techno-economic modelling approach to determine a cost-optimal, adequate energy system.
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The latter especially is key, as the build-up of solar PV in Ukraine from current levels to 14 GW by 2030 will require over EUR 4.39 bn, which will necessitate significant financing from both private actors as well as international 43 Energy Community Secretariat (2023).
Based on techno-economic modelling, we have determined the optimal share of solar power for the period 2027-30. The results show that 9.2 GW of solar generation capacity can be integrated into the Ukrainian electricity system by 2027 and up to 14 GW by 2030.
On the financial side, the installation of large amounts of solar PV presents the most cost-optimal solution for Ukraine.
Solar PV holds significant potential for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s electricity system. The Ukrainian solar PV sector has experienced rapid growth in the late 2010s, growing almost three-fold from 2.0 GW to 5.9 GW in 2018 alone, reaching a total of 8.06 GW by early 2022.
In 2021, the peak load for the whole year was 24.7 GW25, meaning that under perfect solar conditions, the modelled 14 GW of solar PV could cover close to 57% of Ukraine’s peak electricity demand. These capacity additions are also key when comparing
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